Prediction and longitudinal study of CSF biomarkers in mild cognitive impairment.

Objective: To longitudinally evaluate five cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers in the transition from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD).

Methods: A baseline and 2-year follow-up clinical and CSF study of 86 subjects, including 22 MCI patients that declined to AD (MCI-AD), 43 MCI that did not deteriorate (MCI-MCI) and 21 controls (NL-NL). All subjects were studied for total and phosphorylated tau (T-tau, P-tau(231)), amyloid beta (Abeta) Abeta(42)/Abeta(40) ratio, isoprostane (IP) as well as P-tau(231)/Abeta(42/40) and T-tau/Abeta(42/40) ratios.

Results: At baseline and at follow-up MCI-AD showed higher levels P-tau(231), T-tau, IP, P-tau(231)/Abeta(42/40) and T-tau/Abeta(42/40) ratios and lower Abeta(42)/Abeta(40) than MCI-MCI or NL-NL. Baseline P-tau(231) best predicted MCI-AD (80%, p<0.001) followed in accuracy by P-tau(231)/Abeta(42/40) and T-tau/Abeta(42/40) ratios (both 75%, p's<0.001), T-tau (74%, p<0.001), Abeta(42)/Abeta(40) (69%, p<0.01), and IP (68%, p<0.01). Only IP showed longitudinal effects (p<0.05).

Conclusions: P-tau(231) is the strongest predictor of the decline from MCI to AD. IP levels uniquely show longitudinal progression effects. These results suggest the use of CSF biomarkers in secondary prevention trials.