Predictors of atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients with long-lasting atrial fibrillation.

Background: Limited data are available on the predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence in patients with chronic AF.

Objective: To evaluate potential clinical, echocardiographic and electrophysiological predictors of AF recurrence, after internal cardioversion for long-lasting AF.

Methods: A total of 99 consecutive patients (63 men and 36 women, mean age 63.33+/-9.27 years) with long-standing AF (52.42+/-72.02 months) underwent internal cardioversion with a catheter that consisted of two defibrillating coils. Shocks were delivered according to a step-up protocol. Clinical follow-up and electrocardiographic recordings were performed on a monthly basis for a 12-month period or whenever patients experienced symptoms suggestive of recurrent AF.

Results: Ninety-three patients (93.94%) underwent a successful uncomplicated cardioversion, with a mean atrial defibrillation threshold of 10.69+/-6.76 J. Immediate reinitiation of AF was observed in 15 patients (15.78%) of whom a repeated cardioversion restored sinus rhythm in 13 cases. Early recurrence of AF (within one week) was observed in 12 of 93 patients (12.90%). At the end of the 12-month follow-up period, during which seven patients were lost, 42 of the 86 remaining patients (48.84%) were still in sinus rhythm. Multivariate regression analysis showed that left atrial diameter (OR 1.126, 95% CI 1.015 to 1.249; P=0.025) and mitral A wave velocity (OR 0.972, 95% CI 0.945 to 0.999; P=0.044) were significant and independent predictors of AF recurrence, whereas age, left ventricular ejection fraction and AF cycle length were not predictive of arrhythmia recurrence.

Conclusions: The present study showed that the left atrial diameter and mitral A wave velocity are the only variables associated with AF recurrence after successful cardioversion.