MELD-based indices as predictors of mortality in chronic liver disease patients who undergo emergency surgery with general anesthesia.

Background: Underlying chronic liver disease is associated with high morbidity and mortality after emergency surgery, which complicates clinical decisions over performing such surgery. In addition, the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is limited in its ability to predict postoperative residual liver function. This study was designed to determine whether the scores of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-based indices are effective predictors of mortality following emergency surgery in patients with chronic liver disease.

Methods: Medical records of 53 chronic liver disease patients who underwent emergency surgery under general anesthesia from 2001 to 2008 were analyzed retrospectively.

Results: Median preoperative CTP score was 6 (5-12); MELD, 11 (6-33); MELD-Na, 15 (7-34); integrated MELD (iMELD), 33 (14-64); and MELD to sodium ratio, 8 (4-24). During a median 11-month follow-up period, 19 (35.8%) patients died. Five of them (26.3%) had operative mortality (i.e., mortality within 30 days after surgery). On multivariate analysis, CTP class C was correlated with operative mortality, and estimated blood loss above 300 ml and the iMELD score above 35 were significantly correlated with overall mortality.

Conclusions: iMELD reflects underlying liver function and predicts overall mortality more accurately than CTP and other MELD-based indices scores do in chronic liver disease patients after emergency surgery with general anesthesia.