What happens after discharge? An analysis of long-term survival in cardiac surgical patients requiring prolonged intensive care.

Background: Cardiac surgical patients with postoperative complications frequently require prolonged intensive care yet survive to hospital discharge.

Methods: From January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2007, 11,541 consecutive patients underwent cardiac operations at a single academic institution. Of these, 11,084 (95.9%) survived to hospital discharge and comprised the study sample. Patients were retrospectively categorized into four groups according to intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS): <3 days, three to seven days, 7 to 14 days, and >14 days. Survival at 12 months was determined using the Social Security Death Index. Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling (hazard ratio, HR) were used to analyze group differences in survival.

Results: One-year survival among the four groups according to ICU LOS was: <3 days, 97.0% (8407/8666); three to seven days, 91.2% (1481/1625); 7 to 14 days, 87.9% (356/405); and >14 days, 68.3% (265/388) (p < 0.001). Using multivariable regression analysis, adjusted overall mortality was significantly greater in patients with ICU LOS of three to seven days (HR = 1.51), 7 to 14 days (HR = 1.40), and >14 days (HR = 1.90) compared to patients with ICU LOS <3 days. Mortality among patients who survived more than six months postsurgery was significantly greater in patients with ICU LOS of three to seven days (HR = 1.37), 7 to 14 days (HR = 1.34), and >14 days (HR = 1.63).

Conclusions: Although cardiac surgery patients with major postoperative complications frequently survive to hospital discharge, survival after discharge is significantly reduced in patients requiring prolonged ICU care. Reduced survival in patients with a high risk of complications and anticipated long ICU stays should be considered when discussing surgical versus nonsurgical options.