Administered paricalcitol dose and survival in hemodialysis patients: a marginal structural model analysis.

Objective: Several observational studies have indicated that vitamin D receptor activators (VDRA), including paricalcitol, are associated with greater survival in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients. However, patients with higher serum parathyroid hormone, a surrogate of higher death risk, are usually given higher VDRA doses, which can lead to confounding by indication and attenuate the expected survival advantage of high VDRA doses.

Methods: We examined mortality-predictability of low (>1 but <10 µg/week) versus high (≥10 µg/week) dose of administered paricalcitol over time in a contemporary cohort of 15 442 MHD patients (age 64 ± 15 years, 55% men, 44% diabetes, 35% African-Americans) from all DaVita dialysis clinics across the USA (7/2001-6/2006 with survival follow-ups until 6/2007) using conventional Cox regression, propensity score (PS) matching, and marginal structural model (MSM) analyses.

Results: In our conventional Cox models and PS matching models, low dose of paricalcitol was not associated with mortality either in baseline (hazard ratio (HR): 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): (0.97-1.09)) and (HR: 0.99, 95%CI:(0.86-1.14)) or time-dependent (HR: 1.04, 95%CI: (0.98-1.10)) and (HR: 1.12, 95%CI: (0.98-1.28)) models, respectively. In contrast, compared to high dose of paricalcitol, low dose was associated with a 26% higher risk of mortality (HR: 1.26, 95%CI: (1.19-1.35)) in MSM. The association between dose of paricalcitol and mortality was robust in almost all subgroups of patients using MSMs.

Conclusions: Higher dose of paricalcitol appears causally associated with greater survival in MHD patients. Randomized controlled trials need to verify the survival effect of paricalcitol dose in MHD patients are indicated.