The epidemiological and economic impact of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (hpv) vaccine in Estonia.

Background: This analysis assessed the epidemiological and economic impact of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV4: 6/11/16/18) vaccination in Estonia.

Methods: A dynamic transmission model was used to assess the epidemiological and economic impact of the routine vaccination of 12-year-old girls with a HPV4 vaccine in preventing cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grades 1, 2 and 3 and genital warts.

Results: The model projected that at year 100, HPV4 vaccination would lead to a reduction of HPV 16/18 related cervical cancer incidence and deaths by over 97% and the incidence of HPV 6/11 related genital warts among Estonian women and men by over 94% and 81%, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HPV4 vaccination strategy was € 4,889 per QALY gained over a time horizon of 100 years.

Conclusions: Routine vaccination of 12-year-old girls with HPV4 vaccine appears to be cost-effective in Estonia, in addition to providing both short term and long term health gains.