Role of various indices derived from an oral glucose tolerance test in the prediction of conversion from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes.

Objective: The clinical implications of prediabetes for development of type 2 diabetes may differ for Asian ethnicity. We investigated various indices derived from a 2-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in people with prediabetes to predict their future risk of diabetes.

Methods: We recruited 406 consecutive subjects with prediabetes from 2005 to 2006 and followed them up every 3-6 months for up to 9 years. Prediabetes was defined as isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG), isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), combined glucose intolerance (CGI), or isolated elevated HbA1c (5.7-6.4%, 39-46 mmol/mol) without IFG or IGT. The rate of diabetes conversion was compared between prediabetes categories. The association of glycemic indices with development of diabetes was also investigated.

Results: Eighty-one patients were diagnosed with diabetes during the 9-year follow-up (median 46.0 months). The rate of diabetes conversion was higher in subjects with CGI (31.9%), or isolated IGT (18.5%) than in those with isolated IFG (15.2%) or isolated elevated HbA1c (10.9%). Surrogate markers reflecting β-cell dysfunction were more closely associated with diabetes conversion than insulin resistance indices. Subjects with a 30-min postload glucose ≥ 165 mg/dL and a 30-min C-peptide < 5 ng/mL had 8.83 times greater risk (95% confidence interval 2.98-26.16) of developing diabetes than other prediabetic subjects.

Conclusions: In Asians, at least Koreans, β-cell dysfunction seems to be the major determinant for diabetes conversion. A combination of high glucose and low C-peptide levels at 30 min after OGTT may be a good predictor for diabetes conversion in this population.