Risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective: Pancreatitis is the most common and serious complication of diagnostic and therapeutic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). Prevention strategies targeting risk factors could be important to reduce the rate of post-ERCP pancreatitis. However, the risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) are still debated. This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to identify risk factors for PEP.

Methods: Medline (PubMed and Ovid), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled trials & Database of Systematic Reviews, Embase, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Springer links and WEB OF SCIENCE were searched for published studies in all languages. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined a priori. Eighteen probable risk factors were evaluated, and outcomes were expressed in the case of dichotomous variables, as an odds ratio (OR) (with a 95% confidence interval, (CI)).

Results: When patient-related risk factors were analyzed, the ORs for female gender was 1.46 (95%CI: 1.30-1.64); for previous pancreatitis 2.03 (95%CI: 1.31-3.14); for previous PEP was 2.90 (95%CI: 1.87-4.48); for Sphincter of Oddi dysfunction (SOD) was 2.04 (95%CI: 1.73-2.33) and for Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) was 3.01 (95%CI: 1.34-6.77). Four endoscopy-related factors were confirmed: the OR for difficult cannulation was 3.49 (95%CI: 1.364-8.925); for endoscopic sphincterotomy (EST) it was 1.39 (95%CI: 1.09-1.79); for precut sphincterotomy it was 2.25 (95%CI: 1.70_2.96); and for main pancreatic duct injection it was 1.58 (95%CI: 1.21-2.08).

Conclusions: Female gender, previous pancreatitis, previous PEP, SOD, IPMN, difficult cannulation, EST, precut sphincterotomy and main pancreatic duct injection are risk factors for post-ERCP pancreatitis.