Novel Simulation Model of Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer: A Platform for a Virtual Randomized Trial of Conservative Therapy vs. Cystectomy in BCG Refractory Patients.

Introduction: There have been no randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the clinical or economic benefit of mitomycin C intravesical therapy vs. radical cystectomy in patients with high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). We used the Archimedes computational model to simulate RCT comparing radical cystectomy versus intravesical mitomycin C (MMC) therapy to evaluate the clinical and economic outcomes for BCG-refractory NMIBC as well demonstrate the utility of computer based models to simulate a clinical trial.

Methods: The Archimedes model was developed to generate a virtual population using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database, other clinical trials, and expert opinions. Patients selected were diagnosed with NMIBC (

Results: A total of 1300 virtual patients were evaluation. Progression to MIBC in the MMC treatment arm was 30% over the lifetime. Disease specific death at 5 years was 1.6% and 8.7% for the immediate cystectomy and MMC treatment arms respectively; while, overall death was 17.8% and 23.8% at 5 years. Over a 5-year period the average cost of immediate cystectomy was $64,675 vs $68,517 in the MMC arm.

Conclusion: Immediate radical cystectomy after BCG failure for NMIBC has improved survival and is more cost-effective when compared to those undergoing MMC. Simulation of clinical trials using computational models similar to the Archimedes model can overcome shortcomings of real-world clinical trials and may prove useful in the face of current medical cost-conscious era.