CHA2 DS2 VASc score predicts unsuccessful electrical cardioversion in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia occurring in 2% of the population. It is known that AF increases morbidity and limits quality of life. The CHA2 DS2 VASc score (congestive heart failure/left ventricular dysfunction, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes, stroke (doubled), vascular disease, age 65-74 and sex category (female)) is widely used to assess thrombotic complications. The CHA2 DS2 VASc score was not used until now in predicting the effectiveness of electrical cardioversion.

Objective: To assess the value of CHA2 DS2 VASc score in predicting unsuccessful electrical cardioversion.

Methods: We analysed 258 consecutive patients with persistent AF who underwent electrical cardioversion between January 2012 and April 2016 in a Cardiology University Centre in Poland.

Results: Out of 3500 hospitalised patients with AF, 258 (mean age 64 ± 11 years, 64% men) underwent electrical cardioversion. The CHA2 DS2 VASc score in analysed population (258 patients) was 2.5 ± 1.7 (range 0-8), and the HAS-BLED (hypertension, abnormal liver or renal function, stroke, bleeding, labile international normalised ratio, elderly, drugs or alcohol) was 1 ± 0.9 (range 0-4). Electrical cardioversion was unsuccessful in 12%. Factors associated with unsuccessful cardioversion were age (P = 0.0005), history of ischaemic stroke (P = 0.04), male gender (P = 0.01) and CHA2 DS2 VASc score (P = 0.002). The CHA2 DS2 VASc score in patients who had unsuccessful cardioversion was higher compared to patients who had successful cardioversion - 3.5 versus 2.4 (P = 0.001). In the logistic regression model, if the CHA2 DS2 VASc score increases by 1, the odds of unsuccessful cardioversion increase by 39% (odds ratio (OR) 1.39; confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.71; P = 0.002). The odds of unsuccessful cardioversion are three times higher in patients with a CHA2 DS2 VASc score ≥ 2 than in patients with a CHA2 DS2 VASc score of 0 or 1 (OR 3.06; CI: 1.03-9.09; P = 0.044).

Conclusions: The CHA2 DS2 VASc score routinely used in thromboembolic risk assessment may be a simple, easy and reliable scoring system that can be used to predict unsuccessful electrical cardioversion.