Risk Factors for Relapse of Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-associated Vasculitis in Japan: A Nationwide, Prospective Cohort Study.

Objective: The aim was to elucidate the prognosis and risk factors associated with relapse during longterm remission maintenance therapy for antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV).

Methods: Patients with newly diagnosed AAV (n = 156) were registered in the Remission Induction Therapy in Japanese patients with ANCA-associated Vasculitides (RemIT-JAV) study, and among them, 83 patients who achieved remission were enrolled and followed up for 24 additional months in our nationwide, prospective cohort study (Co-RemIT-JAV; registration number UMIN 000006373). Patterns of maintenance therapy, effectiveness, and safety were evaluated from months 25 to 48 after the RemIT-JAV. The primary outcome measure was the rate of relapse. Secondary outcome measures included overall and renal survival, risk factors associated with relapse, and incidence rates of serious infections.

Results: The patients comprised 35 men and 48 women aged 65.3 ± 12.6 years. Between months 25 and 48, the survival rate was 95% (79/83). Causes of death included 1 thyroid cancer, 1 infection, and 2 unknown reasons. Four patients had developed endstage renal disease (ESRD) by Month 24; 1 developed ESRD beyond Month 25. The relapse rate was 24% (20/83) from months 25 to 48. Multivariable analysis revealed that oral prednisolone ≤ 2.5 mg/day at Month 24 was a significant risk factor for relapse between months 25 and 48 (HR = 3.1, 95% CI 1.1-8.5).

Conclusion: One-quarter of patients with AAV relapsed during maintenance therapy, and relapse was associated with the dose of oral prednisolone 24 months after the initiation of remission induction therapy in Japan.