Development and external validation of prognostic nomograms in hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a population based study.

Background: We attempted to construct and validate novel nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: Models were established using a discovery set (n=10,262) obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, we identified independent risk factors for OS and CSS. Concordance indexes (c-indexes) and calibration plots were used to evaluate model discrimination. The predictive accuracy and clinical values of the nomograms were measured by decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Our OS nomogram with a c-index of 0.753 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.745-0.761) was based on age, sex, race, marital status, histological grade, TNM stage, tumor size, and surgery performed, and it performed better than TNM stage. Our CSS nomogram had a c-index of 0.748 (95% CI, 0.740-0.756). The calibration curves fit well. DCA showed that the two nomograms provided substantial clinical value. Internal validation produced c-indexes of 0.758 and 0.752 for OS and CSS, respectively, while external validation in the Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital (SYMH) cohort produced a c-indexes of 0.702 and 0.686 for OS and CSS, respectively.

Conclusions: We have developed nomograms that enable more accurate individualized predictions of OS and CSS to help doctors better formulate individual treatment and follow-up management strategies.