A novel scoring system for stroke risk stratification in Japanese patients with low CHADS2 scores: Study using a transesophageal-echocardiogram endpoint.

Background: Catheter ablation is an effective treatment for atrial fibrillation (AF), but it carries risk of perioperative thromboembolism even in cases with low CHADS2 scores. Here, we examined whether a combination of clinical variables can predict stroke risk factors that are assessed by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE).

Methods: The study population consisted of 209 consecutive AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0 or 1 (58.7 ± 10.6 years old; persistent AF, 33.0%). All patients underwent TEE, and TEE-determined stroke risk (TEE risk) was defined as cardiac thrombus/sludge, dense spontaneous echo contrast (SEC), and/or peak left atrial appendage (LAA) flow velocity <0.25 m/s.

Results: Transesophageal echocardiography risk was observed in 10.5% of the patients. In multivariate logistic analysis, persistent AF [odds ratio (OR): 11.5, CI: 3.14-42.1, P = .0002], left atrial diameter (LAD) (OR: 1.10, CI: 1.01-1.20, P = .0293), contrast medium defect (CMD) in the LAA detected by computed tomography (OR: 20.2, CI: 6.3-65.0, P < .0001), and serum brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) level (OR: 1.00, CI: 1.00-1.01, P = .0056) were independent predictors of TEE risk. A new scoring system comprising LAD > 41 mm (1 point), BNP > 47 pg/mL (1 point), CMD (2 points), and persistent AF (2 points) was constructed and defined as TEE-risk score. The area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of TEE risk was 0.631 in modified CHADS2 score and it was 0.852 in TEE-risk score.

Conclusions: Transesophageal echocardiography risk is predictable by TEE-risk score, and its combination with CHADS2 score may improve the stroke risk stratification in AF patients with a low CHADS2 score.