Theoretical Model for Delivery of Congenital Heart Surgery in the United States.

Background: Over 150 hospitals perform congenital heart surgery (CHS) in the United States. Many hospitals are close together, with a median patient travel distance of 38.5 miles. We began with a theoretical blank slate and used objective methodology guided by population density and volume thresholds to estimate the optimal number and locations of hospitals to provide CHS in the United States.

Methods: Guided by published data, we estimated the number of CHS operations in the United States in to be 32,500 per year. We distributed patients geographically based on population density. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (population centers and surrounding areas with close economic/social ties) were used as potential hospital locations. Patients were assigned to the closest hospital location such that all hospitals had a CHS volume of ≥300 operations.

Results: We estimated 57 hospitals could serve the contiguous United States. Median theoretical hospital volume after regionalization was 451 operations (interquartile range, 366-648). Median patient travel distance was 35.1 miles. Some patients (6396/31,895, 20%) traveled more than 100 miles.

Conclusions: Our model suggests the United States could be served by approximately 100 fewer CHS hospitals than currently exist. With hospitals optimally placed, patient travel burden would decrease. This model serves as a platform to improve care delivery by regionalization of CHS.