Performance of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Pooled Cohort Equations to Estimate Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Self-reported Physical Activity Levels.

Importance: The American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology pooled cohort equations (PCEs) are used for predicting 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Pooled cohort equation risk prediction capabilities across self-reported leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) levels and the change in model performance with addition of LTPA to the PCE are unclear.

Objective: To evaluate PCE risk prediction performance across self-reported LTPA levels and the change in model performance by adding LTPA to the existing PCE model. Design, setting, and participants: Individual-level pooling of data from 3 longitudinal cohort studies-Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Cardiovascular Health Study-was performed. A total of 18 824 participants were stratified into 4 groups based on self-reported LTPA levels: inactive (0 metabolic equivalent of task [MET]-min/wk), less than guideline-recommended (<500 MET-min/wk), guideline-recommended (500-1000 MET-min/week), and greater than guideline-recommended (>1000 MET-min/wk). Pooled cohort equation risk discrimination was studied using the C statistic and reclassification capabilities were studied using the Greenwood Nam-D'Agostino χ2 goodness-of-fit test. Change in risk discrimination and reclassification on adding LTPA to PCEs was evaluated using change in C statistic, integrated discrimination index, and categorical net reclassification index. Main outcomes and measures: Adjudicated ASCVD events during 10-year follow-up.

Results: Among 18 824 participants studied, 10 302 were women (54.7%); mean (SD) age was 57.6 (8.2) years. A total of 5868 participants (31.2%) were inactive, 3849 (20.4%) had less than guideline-recommended LTPA, 3372 (17.9%) had guideline-recommended LTPA, and 5735 (30.5%) had greater than guideline-recommended LTPA level. Higher LTPA levels were associated with a lower risk of ASCVD after adjustment for risk factors (hazard ratio [HR] per 1-SD higher LTPA, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.86-0.96). Across LTPA groups, PCE risk discrimination (C statistic, 0.76-0.78) and risk calibration (all χ2 P > .10) was similar. Addition of LTPA to the PCE model resulted in no significant change in the C statistic (0.0005; 95% CI, -0.0004 to 0.0015; P = .28) and categorical net reclassification index (-0.003; 95% CI, -0.010 to 0.010; P = .95), but a minimal improvement in the integrated discrimination index (0.0008; 95% CI, 0.0002-0.0013; P = .005) was observed. Similar results were noted when cohort-specific coefficients were used for creating the baseline model. Conclusions and relevance: Higher self-reported LTPA levels appear to be associated with lower ASCVD risk and increasing LTPA promotes cardiovascular wellness. These findings suggest the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology PCEs are accurate at estimating the probability of 10-year ASCVD risk regardless of LTPA level. The addition of self-reported LTPA to PCEs does not appear to be associated with improvement in risk prediction model performance.