Changing age-specific trends in incidence, comorbidities and mortality of hospitalised heart failure in Western Australia between 2001 and 2016.

Background: Incident heart failure (HF) hospitalisation rates in most high-income countries are stable or declining. However, HF incidence may be increasing in younger people linked to changing risk factor profiles in the general population. We examined age and sex-specific patterns of incidence, comorbidities and mortality of hospitalised HF in Western Australia (WA) between 2001 and 2016.

Results: All WA residents aged 25-94 years, with an incident (first-ever) principal HF discharge diagnosis between 2001 and 2016 were included (n = 22,476). Poisson regression derived annual age and sex-standardised rates of incident HF and 1-year mortality overall, and by age groups (25-54, 55-74, 75-94), across the study period. Overall, the age and sex-standardised rates of incident HF increased marginally by 0.6% per year (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.3, 0.8) whereas incidence increased by 3.1% per year (95% CI, 2.2, 4.0) in the 25-54 year age-group (trend p < 0.0001). There was a high prevalence (≥15%) of obesity, diabetes mellitus, cardiomyopathy, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, and chronic kidney disease in younger HF patients. Overall standardised 1-year mortality declined by -1.0% per year (95%CI, -0.4, -1.6), driven largely by the mortality decline in the 55-74 year age group.

Conclusions: Incident HF hospitalisation rates have been rising in WA since 2006, notably in individuals under 55 years. The underlying reasons require further investigation, particularly the population-attributable risk related to increasing obesity and diabetes mellitus in the general population. Rising HF incidence along with declining mortality rates portends to an increasing HF burden in the community.