Comparative effectiveness of gastric bypass and sleeve gastrectomy on predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease 5 years after surgery.

Background: Comparative evidence is needed when deciding which bariatric operation to undergo for long-term cardiovascular risk reduction.

Objectives: The Effectiveness of Gastric Bypass vs. Gastric Sleeve for Cardiovascular Disease (ENGAGE CVD) study compared the effectiveness of vertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG) and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) operations for reduction of the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association-predicted 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk 5 years after surgery. Setting: Data for this study came from a large integrated healthcare system in the Southern California region of the United States. This is one of the most ethnically diverse (64% non-White) bariatric populations in the literature.

Methods: The ENGAGE CVD cohort consisted of 22,095 patients who underwent VSG or RYGB from 2009-2016. The VSG and RYGB were compared using a local instrumental variable approach to address observed and unobserved confounding, as well as to conduct heterogeneity of treatment effects for patients of different age groups, baseline-predicted 10-year CVD risk using the ASCVD risk score, and those who had type 2 diabetes (T2D) at the time of surgery.

Results: Patients (2771 RYGB and 6256 VVSG) were primarily women (80.6%), Hispanic or non-Hispanic Black (63.7%), and 46 ± 10 years of age, with a body mass index of 43.40 ± 6.5 kg/m2. The predicted 10-year ASCVD risk at surgery was 4.1% for VSG and 5.1% for RYGB, decreasing to 2.6% for VSG and 2.8% for RYGB 1 year postoperatively. By 5 years after surgery, patients remained with relatively low risk levels (3.0% for VSG and 3.3% for RYGB) and there were no significant differences in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk between VSG and RYGB at any time.

Conclusion: Predicted 10-year ASCVD risk was low in this population and remained low up to 5 years for those with diabetes, Black and Hispanic patients, and older adults. Literature reporting significant differences between VSG and RYGB in 10-year ASCVD risk may be a result of residual confounding.