Nonoperative Management Versus Laparoscopic Appendectomy in Children: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Introduction: Nonoperative management (NOM) of acute appendicitis in the pediatric population is highly debated with uncertain cost-effectiveness. We performed a decision tree cost-effectiveness analysis of NOM versus early laparoscopic appendectomy (LA) for acute appendicitis in children.

Methods: We created a decision tree model for a simulated cohort of 49,000 patients, the number of uncomplicated appendectomies performed annually, comparing NOM and LA. We included postoperative complications, recurrent appendicitis, and antibiotic-related complications. We used the payer perspective with a 1-year time horizon. Model uncertainty was analyzed using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Event probabilities, health-state utilities, and costs were obtained from literature review, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, and Medicare fee schedules.

Results: In the base-case analysis, NOM costs $6530/patient and LA costs $9278/patient on average at 1 y. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) differences minimally favored NOM compared to LA with 0.997 versus 0.996 QALYs/patient. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for NOM over LA was $4,791,149.52/QALY. NOM was dominant in 97.4% of simulations, outperforming in cost and QALYs. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed NOM was 99.6% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY.

Conclusions: Our model demonstrates that NOM is a dominant strategy to LA over a 1-year horizon. We use recent trial data demonstrating higher rates of early and late NOM failures. However, we also incorporate a shorter length of index hospitalizations with NOM, reflecting a contemporary approach to NOM and ultimately driving cost-effectiveness. Long-term follow-up data are needed in this population to assess the cost-effectiveness of NOM over longer time horizons, where healthcare utilization and recurrence rates may be higher.