Severity of COVID-19 among Residents in Aged Care Facilities in Victoria, Australia: A Retrospective Cohort Study Comparing the Delta and Omicron Epidemic Periods.

Objectives: During the COVID-19 pandemic, no country with widespread community transmission has avoided outbreaks or deaths in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). As RACF residents are at high risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19, understanding disease severity risk factors is imperative.

Design: This retrospective cohort study aimed to compare COVID-19 disease severity (hospitalization and deaths) and associated risk factors among RACF residents in Victoria, Australia, across Delta and Omicron epidemic periods. Settings and participants: Resident case hospitalization risk (HR) and case fatality risk (CFR) were assessed using Victorian RACFs COVID-19 outbreaks data across 2 epidemic periods; Delta, 994 resident cases linked to 86 outbreaks; and Omicron, 1882 resident cases linked to 209 outbreaks.

Methods: Adjusting for outbreak-level clustering, age, sex, up-to-date vaccination status, and time since last vaccination, the odds of hospitalization and death were compared using mixed effects logistic regression.

Results: The HR and CFR was lower during the Omicron period compared with the Delta period [HR 8.2% vs 24.6%, odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95% CI 0.11-0.26, and CFR: 11.4% vs 18.7%, OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.28-0.56]. During both periods, males had higher odds of hospitalization and odds of death; being up to date with vaccination reduced odds of hospitalization by 40% (excluding nonemergency patient transfers) and odds of death by 43%; and for each month since last vaccination, odds of hospitalization increased by 9% and odds of death by 16%. Conclusions and implications: This study provides empirical evidence of lower COVID-19 severity among RACF residents in the Omicron period and highlights the importance of up-to-date and timely vaccination to reduce disease severity in this cohort.