Early chest CT abnormalities to predict the subsequent occurrence of chronic lung allograft dysfunction.

Background: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) can take two forms: bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) or restrictive allograft syndrome (RAS). The aim was to determine if chest-CT abnormalities after lung transplantation (LTx) could predict CLAD before respiratory functional deterioration.

Methods: This monocentric retrospective study analyzed consecutive patients who underwent LTx from January 2015 to December 2018. Initial CT post-LTx (CTi) and a follow-up CT at least 9 months post-LTx (CTf) were reviewed. CLAD was defined as a persistent respiratory functional decline (> 20% of basal FEV1) outside acute episode. A Cox regression was performed in univariate, then in multivariate analysis (including features with p < 0.01 in univariate or of clinical importance) to determine risk factors for CLAD. Subgroup analyses were made for BOS, RAS, and death.

Results: Among 118 LTx patients (median (min-max) 47 (18-68) years), 25 developed CLAD during follow-up (19 BOS). The median time to CLAD since LTx was 570 days [150-1770]. Moderate pulmonary artery stenosis (30-50%) was associated with the occurrence of CLAD on CTi (hazard ratio HR = 4.6, CI [1.6-13.2]) and consolidations and pleural effusion on CTf (HR = 2.6, CI [1.3-4.9] and HR = 4.5, CI [1.5-13.6] respectively). The presence of mosaic attenuation (HR = 4.1, CI [1.4-12.5]), consolidations (HR = 2.6, CI [1.3-5.4]), and pleural effusions (p = 0.01, HR = 5.7, CI [1.4-22.3]) were risk factors for BOS on CTf. The consolidations (p = 0.029) and pleural effusions (p = 0.001) were risk factors for death on CTf.

Conclusions: CTi and CTf in the monitoring of LTx patients could predict CLAD. Moderate pulmonary artery stenosis, mosaic pattern, parenchyma condensations, and pleural effusions were risk factors for CLAD. There is a potential predictive role of chest CT in the follow-up of LTx patients for chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD). Early chest CT should focus on pulmonary artery stenosis (risk factor for CLAD in this study). During the follow-up (at least 9 months post-LTx), parenchymal consolidations and pleural effusions were shown to be risk factors for CLAD, and death in subgroup analyses. Conclusions: • Pulmonary artery stenosis (30-50%) on initial chest-CT following lung transplantation predicts CLAD HR = 4.5; CI [1.6-13.2]. • Pleural effusion and consolidations 1 year after lung transplantation predict CLAD and death. • Early evaluation of lung transplanted patients should evaluate pulmonary artery anastomosis.