Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of genital herpes in China, 2010-2023

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of genital herpes in China from 2010 to 2023 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of genital herpes.

Methods: The reported data of genital herpes cases in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2010 to 2023 were collected from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Software Joinpoint 5.2.0 was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of genital herpes, software ArcGIS 10.5 was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, and software SaTScan 10.2.3 was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis.

Results: The reported incidence rate of genital herpes increased from 1.58/100 000 to 2.00/100 000 in China from 2010 to 2023, with an average annual percentage change of 0.90%. The upward trend of reported incidence rate was significant (t=2.35, P=0.037). There was a positive spatial autocorrelation in the reported incidence of genital herpes with the global Moran's I ranging from 0.36 to 0.51 (all P<0.001). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the number of hotspots increased from 144 in 2010 to 232 in 2023, mainly distributed in provinces Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing and Hunan. The number of hotspots in of Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou increased significantly from 7 to 57. A total of 67 spatiotemporal clusters were detected by spatiotemporal scanning analysis, mainly distributed in Guangdong from 2011 to 2015, in Zhejiang and Fujian from 2015 to 2019, and in Chongqing and Guizhou from 2019 to 2023.

Conclusions: From 2010 to 2023, the reported incidence of genital herpes in China showed an upward trend, and there was an obvious spatiotemporal clustering of genital herpes. The distribution of hotspots was basically consistent with the distribution of spatiotemporal clustering areas, mainly distributed in the southeastern coastal area and southwestern region, and the spatiotemporal clustering areas gradually changed from the southeast coastal area to the southwest region.