Prognostic Accuracy of Nutritional Assessment Tools in Critically-Ill COVID-19 Patients.

Objectives: Critically ill COVID-19 patients are at high risk of malnutrition; however, no study has directly compared the prognostic accuracy of different nutritional assessment tools. This study aimed to determine the optimal cutoff values for the Modified Nutrition Risk in the Critically Ill (mNUTRIC) score, Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002), and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and to evaluate their predictive value for ICU mortality. Method: A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to our ICU between 20 March 2020 and 15 June 2021. Clinical and laboratory data, as well as patient outcomes, were retrieved from electronic medical records and patient charts. The mNUTRIC, NRS 2002, and MUST scores were calculated at ICU admission.

Results: The study included 397 patients, with 273 survivors and 124 non-survivors. The median age was 65 (55-76) years, and the median BMI was 26.1 (24.0-29.4). Non-survivors had significantly higher median scores in all three nutritional assessment tools compared to survivors (mNUTRIC: 5 vs. 3, NRS 2002: 4 vs. 3, MUST: 2 vs. 2; p < 0.01). At the optimal cutoff values, mNUTRIC ≥ 4 demonstrated the highest prognostic accuracy (sensitivity: 0.77, specificity: 0.74; AUC = 0.75, CI = 0.70-0.81), followed by NRS 2002 ≥ 4 (sensitivity: 0.63, specificity: 0.60; AUC = 0.62, CI = 0.56-0.67) and MUST ≥ 3 (sensitivity: 0.21, specificity: 0.91; AUC = 0.56, CI = 0.50-0.68). Higher scores were associated with increased disease severity, poorer patient performance, prolonged hospital stays, and elevated ICU, 28-day, and overall hospital mortality rates. Among the three assessment tools, only an mNUTRIC score of ≥ 4 was independently associated with ICU mortality (OR = 1.54, CI = 1.21-1.96, p < 0.01).

Conclusions: At ICU admission, mNUTRIC ≥ 4, NRS 2002 ≥ 4, and MUST ≥ 3 were identified as the most accurate predictors of mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. However, only the mNUTRIC score was an independent predictor of ICU mortality.