Predicting pregnancy outcome from the degree of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein elevation.

Objective: To determine if a correlation exists between the level of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) elevation and the rate of adverse pregnancy outcome, to examine the timing of pregnancies ending in fetal or neonatal death, and to develop a protocol for antepartum surveillance in an effort to prevent these adverse outcomes.

Methods: Singleton pregnancies with a single second-trimester elevated MSAFP > or = 2.0 multiples of the median (MoM) were eligible if a targeted ultrasound evaluation (< 24 weeks) was in agreement with the dates and no fetoplacental anomaly was detected. Three groups were established based on the second-trimester MSAFP elevation: 2.0-2.49, 2.5-2.99 and > or = 3.0 MoM.

Results: Among the 383 patients enrolled, delivery data were available on 333 infants. Stratified by MSAFP elevations of 2.0-2.49, 2.5-2.99 and > or = 3.0 MoM, the rates of adverse pregnancy outcome were: (1) preterm birth: 14.3%, 15.6%, 20.3%; (2) small for gestational age at birth: 7.4%, 11.1%, 22.2%; and (3) perinatal deaths (neonatal and fetal): 2.6%, 3.3%, 5.6%. Seven pregnancy losses (three neonatal and four fetal deaths) occurred prior to 28 weeks. Of these seven, six fetuses exhibited intrauterine growth retardation by 23-26 weeks' gestation, and five of six were associated with MSAFP levels > or = 2.5 MoM. Four losses (two neonatal and two fetal deaths) occurred after 28 weeks. Of these, three involved structurally normal infants with normal growth who died after 34 weeks. All three of these pregnancies exhibited MSAFP elevations < 2.5 MoM.

Conclusions: In pregnancies with an unexplained elevated second-trimester MSAFP, the rate of adverse pregnancy outcomes is increased with higher elevations. Any proposed program to improve pregnancy outcome in patients with unexplained MSAFP elevations must include efforts aimed at preventing preterm delivery, repeat ultrasound at 24-26 weeks to rule out early-onset intrauterine growth retardation in pregnancies with elevations > or = 2.5 MoM and fetal biophysical monitoring, even in normally grown fetuses, instituted at 32 weeks to detect fetuses at risk for intrauterine death.