Clinical predictors of early embolic recurrence in presumed cardioembolic stroke.

Background: We determined clinical predictive factors of in-hospital embolic recurrence in presumed cardioembolic stroke patients by means of multivariate analysis based on clinical and neuroimaging prognostic variables assessed within 48 h of stroke onset.

Methods: Data of 347 consecutive patients with presumed cardioembolic stroke included in a prospective stroke registry were collected. Demographic characteristics, clinical events, and outcome in the recurrent and nonrecurrent embolization group were compared. The independent predictive value of each variable on the development of early embolic recurrence was analyzed in two multiple liner regression models - one based on eight demographic, anamnestic, and clinical variables and another based on 10 clinical, neuroimaging, and outcome variables.

Results: In-hospital recurrent embolization was diagnosed in 25 (6.9%) patients. The latency period was 12.1 days. The overall in-hospital mortality was 70.8% in the recurrent embolization group and 24.4% in the nonrecurrent embolization group (p < 0.001). Alcohol abuse, the combination of hypertension, valvular heart disease, and atrial fibrillation, nausea and vomiting, and previous cerebral infarction were predictors of recurrent embolization in the model based on clinical variables. In addition to these four variables, cardiac events were selected in the model based on clinical, neuroimaging, and outcome variables.

Conclusions: A small number of clinical features that can be easily obtained on the patient's initial assessment may help clinicians to identify a subgroup of patients with cardioembolic stroke at the highest risk of developing early recurrent brain or systemic embolization.