Increasing prevalence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus and gastro-oesophageal junction: a study of the Swedish population between 1970 and 1997.

Objective: To see whether there was an increasing incidence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus and gastric cardia in the Swedish population. If there is a rising trend and variations in it can be found, could it be explained as a period or cohort phenomenon? The data were also compared with the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma and gastric cancer with the gastric cardia excluded.

Methods: Retrospective study. Methods: Sweden. Methods: Swedish population. Methods: Age standardised incidence for each sex was calculated using the age distribution of the world population as a reference. Age-period-cohort models were fitted to data using Poisson regression to model log incidence rates.

Results: For the combined group of adenocarcinoma in the oesophagus and gastric cardia age standardised incidence gradually increased during the study period. The median increase between adjacent five-year intervals was 20% in women and 14% in men. A period effect was evident in men.

Conclusions: This study shows that the incidence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus and gastroesophageal junction is rising for both men and women in the Swedish population. This is explained as a period effect. As well as previously-described risk factors such as gastro-oesophageal reflux, obesity, and smoking, the increasing incidence can be explained as a shift in classification from squamous cell carcinoma to adenocarcinoma after 1985.