Background: It is the aim of this study to describe both the relationship between age and prevalence as well as age and 5-year incidence of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) for a homogeneous population cohort. The result of the regression model for the prevalence are compared with the models of Tuck-Crick and Quigley-Vitale. In addition, estimations for the number of 5-year incidence cases of POAG are provided for individuals at the age of 40-80 years in Austria for the years in 2001-2006, 2010-2015, 2020-2025 and 2030-2035.

Methods: The "Salzburg Moorfields Collaborative Glaucoma Study" (SMCGS) is embedded in a government-supported glaucoma blindness prevention programme in Salzburg county, Austria, which is designed for a screening and follow-up period of at least 10 years. Each subject receives a complete ophthalmological examination. In total, the findings of 853 subjects are analysed and evaluated applying the guidelines of the European glaucoma society.

Results: The results of the regression analysis for the prevalences are in good agreement with the models of Tuck-Crick and Quigley-Vitale. The best correlation was found for individuals between 40 and 80 years of age. The 5-year incidences increase is statistically significant (p < 0.001) with increasing age: the 5-year incidences of individuals at the age of 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 years are 0.07 % (95 % confidence interval: 0.005 - 0.9 %), 0.2 % (0.04 - 1.2 %), 0.7 % (0.3 - 1.9 %), 2.3 % (1 - 5.2 %) and 6.9 % (1.7 - 24.0 %), respectively.

Conclusions: The age-dependent prevalences in this glaucoma screening program are in good agreement with the regression models of Tuck-Crick and Quigley-Vitale, especially in the age range of 40 - 80 years. The model for the 5-year incidences describes the tight relationship between age and 5-year risk for POAG. We estimate the number of new POAG cases in Austria in 2001-2006, 2010-2015, 2020-2025 and 2030-2035 at the age between 40 and 80 years to reach 49 100, 52 100, 62 000 and 69 600 patients, respectively.