Background: Neurofilament light chain (NfL) is a promising marker of disease activity/treatment response in multiple sclerosis (MS), although its predictive value for long-term clinical outcomes remains unclear.

Objective: We measured NfL from a phase 3 trial in relapsing-remitting MS and investigated its association with outcomes after 8 and 15 years.

Methods: NfL concentrations were measured by single molecule array assay in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from MS patients (n = 235) in a 2-year randomized clinical trial (RCT) of intramuscular interferon β-1a, and in serum (n = 164) from the extension study.

Results: Year 2 CSF and Year 3 serum NfL were associated with brain parenchymal fraction (BPF) change over 8 years (p < 0.0001, r = -0.46; p < 0.05. r = -0.36, respectively) and were predictive of reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ⩾ 6.0 at Year 8 (odds ratio (OR) (upper vs lower tertile) = 3.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-9.9, p < 0.05; OR = 11.0, 95% CI = 2.0-114.6; p < 0.01, respectively). Serum NfL concentration (Year 4) was predictive of reaching EDSS score ⩾6.0 at 15 years (OR (upper vs lower tertile) = 4.9; 95% CI = 1.4-20.4; p < 0.05). NfL concentrations were complementary to 2-year BPF change in predicting long-term outcomes.

Conclusion: Serum and CSF NfL concentrations were associated with long-term clinical outcomes in MS patients and are promising biomarkers for disease severity stratification supporting treatment decisions.