Objective: The risk of colorectal cancer is increased in ulcerative colitis (UC). Patients with UC have diverse colonoscopic appearances. Determining colonoscopic markers for cancer risk could allow patient risk stratification.

Methods: Following on from an earlier study which demonstrated a correlation between inflammation severity and neoplasia risk, a case control study was performed to look for colonoscopic markers of colorectal neoplasia risk in UC. Each patient with neoplasia detected between 1988 and 2002 was matched with two non-dysplastic colitic controls. Data were collected on post-inflammatory polyps, scarring, strictures, backwash ileitis, a shortened, tubular, or featureless colon, severe inflammation, and normal looking surveillance colonoscopies.

Results: Cases (n = 68) and controls (n = 136) were well matched. On univariate analysis, cases were significantly more likely to have post-inflammatory polyps (odds ratio (OR) 2.14 (95% confidence interval 1.24-3.70)), strictures (OR 4.22; 1.08-15.54), shortened colons (OR 10.0; 1.17-85.6), tubular colons (OR 2.03; 1.00-4.08), or segments of severe inflammation (OR 3.38; 1.41-10.13), and less likely to have had a macroscopically normal looking colonoscopy (OR 0.40; 0.21-0.74). After multivariate analysis, a macroscopically normal looking colonoscopy (OR 0.38; 0.19-0.73), post-inflammatory polyps (2.29; 1.28-4.11), and strictures (4.62; 1.03-20.8) remained significant. The five year risk of colorectal cancer following a normal looking colonoscopy was no different from that of matched general population controls.

Conclusions: Macroscopic colonoscopic features help predict neoplasia risk in UC. Features of previous/ongoing inflammation signify an increased risk. A macroscopically normal looking colonoscopy returns the cancer risk to that of the general population: it should be possible to reduce surveillance frequency to five years in this cohort.